From the great crisis to the great depression of the 2020’s

China' development, post-keynesian reflection and perspectives

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1676-6288.prolam.2020.169823

Keywords:

China, Silk road, Covid-19, Monetary policy, Corporate debt

Abstract

The objective of this post-keynesian reflection is to allude to the causes of the Great Depression of the 2020’s and how the impact of the economic strike in China disintegrated the continuity of the accumulation process at the international level. The economic-political decisions regarding the confinement of the population that the Chinese government made to confront COVID-19 triggered the conditions of fragility and uncertainty prevailing at the international level and took the rest of the world by surprise. Faced with the declared pandemic and the productive stoppage to curb the contagion of the virus, forecasts were displayed showing the fragile world situation in the face of financial speculation and the indebtedness of both the large non-financial corporations and the sovereign debt of many countries. In the medium term, China will face moratoriums and defaults against the investments carried out in the framework of the Silk Road, particularly in Latin America. Today the world suffers an abysmal and prolonged fall.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

  • Alicia Girón, Universidad Autónoma de México

    Investigadora del Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Coordinadora del Programa Universitario de Estudios sobre Asia y África de la UNAM. Correo electrónico: alicia@unam.mx

References

BANERJEE, Ryan; HOFMANN, Boris. The rise of zombie firms: causes and consequences, BIS Quarterly Review, Basilea, septiembre 2018. Disponible en: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1809g.pdf . Acceso 15 de abril de 2020.

BIS. Credit to the non-financial sector. Bank for International Settlements, 30 de abril de 2020. Disponible en: https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm?m=6|380|669 . Acceso 01 de junio de 2020.

BORODOVSKY, Lev. 40% of U.S. Small Businesses Are Skipping Rent in May. The Wall Street Journal. Nueva York, 4 de mayo de 2020 (a) . Disponible en: https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2020/05/04/the-daily-shot-40-of-u-s-small-businesses-are-not-paying-rent-in-may/ . Acceso 07 de mayo de 2020.

BORODOVSKY, Lev. Crude Oil Under Pressure Again as Global Inventories Approach Physical Storage Capacity. The Wall Street Journal. Nueva York, 28 de abril de 2020 (b). Disponible en: https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2020/04/28/the-daily-shot-crude-oil-under-pressure-again-as-global-inventories-approach-physical-storage-capacity/#China . Acceso 30 de abril de 2020.

CARO, Soraya. Economic Corridors in Asia: Paradigm of Integration? A Reflection for Latin America. Universidad Externado de Colombia, 2020. Disponible en: https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/bitstream/001/2784/6/MLC-spa-2020-Economic_corridors_in_Asia_paradigm_of_integration . Acceso 07 de julio de 2020.

CHENG, Jonathan. China Records First Ever Contraction in Quarterly GDP on Coronavirus. The Wall Street Journal. Nueva York, 17 de abril de 2020. Disponible en: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-report-plunge-in-first-quarter-gdp-11587086697/?mod=djemDailyShot&mod=djemDailyShot . Acceso 29 de abril de 2020.

JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY.Covid-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). Disponible en https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Acceso 16 de julio de 2020.

FITCH RATINGS. Global Economic Outlook: Crisis Update Late April 2020. Coronavirus Recession Unparalleled. Nueva York, 22 de abril 2020, p.6. Disponible en: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-crisis-update-late-april-2020-coronavirus-recession-unparalleled-22-04-2020 . Acceso 23 de abril de 2020.

GIRÓN, Alicia. Austeridad, democracia y COVID-19. Boletín Coyuntura Económica, año. 2, n. 2, pp. 11-17. México, febrero-mayo 2020. Disponible en: http://ru.iiec.unam.mx/4993/1/COYEC_A1_N2.pdf . Acceso 25 de junio de 2020.

IMF. Kristalina Georgieva: Confronting the Covid-19 Crisis. IMF Podcast, Washington DC., 9 de abril 2020. Disponible en https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2020/04/09/md-curtain-raiser-2020-sms . Acceso 10 de abril de 2020.

KEYNES, John. Teoría General de la Ocupación el Interés y el Dinero, Fondo de Cultura Económica, México, 1965 [1936]. Consultado 15 de julio de 2020.

KYNGE, James; YU, Sun. China faces wave of calls for debt relief on ‘Belt and Road’ projects. The Financial Times, Londres, 30 de abril de 2020. Disponible en https://www.ft.com/content/5a3192be-27c6-4fe7-87e7-78d4158bd39b . Acceso 04 de junio de 2020.

ORGANIZACIÓN MUNDIAL DEL TRABAJO. ILO MONITOR. COVID-19 and the world of work. Fith edition. 30 de junio 2020. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_749399.pdf . Acceso 13 de julio de 2020.

MINSKY, Hyman. The Financial Instability Hypothesis. Working Paper No. 74. The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, mayo 1992. Disponible en: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp74.pdf .Consultado 29 de mayo de 2020.

MINSKY, Hyman. Can “it” happen again? Essays on instability and finance. M. E. Sharpe, Inc. New York. 1982. Consultado 29 de mayo de 2020.

OECD. China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Global Trade, Investment and Finance Landscape. Business and Finance. Outlook. 2018. Disponible en: https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf .Consultado 26 de mayo de 2020.

OCDE.Stat. Quarterly National Accounts: Quarterly Growth Rates of real GDP, change over same quarter, previous year. OCDE, París, consultado el 26 de mayo de 2020. Disponible en: https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=26674

SUMMERS, Laurence; STANSBURY, Anna. Whither Central Banking? Project Syndicate. Praga, 23 de agosto de 2019. Disponible en: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-bankers-in-jackson-hole-should-admit-impotence-by-lawrence-h-summers-and-anna-stansbury-2-2019-08?barrier=accesspaylog . Acceso 24 de agosto de 2020.

SANDBU, Martin. Central banks should not be tempted by the good old days. The International News, Pakistán, 03 de septiembre de 2018. Disponible en: https://www.thenews.com.pk/magazine/money-matters/294386-central-banks-should-not-be-tempted-by-the-good-old-days . Acceso 13 de julio de 2020.

THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE. China Global Investment Tracker, Washington, DC. 2018. Disponible en: https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/ . Acceso 16 de julio de 2020.

THE ECONOMIST. CHINA’S economists debate deficit monetization. Shanghái, 28 de mayo de 2020. Disponible en: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/05/28/chinas-economists-debate-deficit-monetisation .Acceso 13 de julio de 2020.

THE ECONOMIST. China’s financial system. The coming debt bust. Londres, 7 de mayo de 2016. Disponible en: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2016/05/07/the-coming-debt-bust . Acceso 13 de julio de 2020.

WOLF, Martin. The world economy is now collapsing. Financial Times. Londres, 14 de abril de 2020. Disponible en: https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84?segmentId=fedb1231-d3f2-54c3-88fe-c4455b1d9a4e . Acceso 05 de mayo de 2020.

VII. BIBLIOGRAFÍA

Borodovsky, L. (2020, mayo). 40% of U.S. Small Businesses Are Skipping Rent in May. Newsletter by Lev Borodovsky, China. Disponible en: https://on.wsj.com/2YElwjK

Borodovsky, L. (2020, abril). Crude Oil Under Pressure Again as Global Inventories Approach Physical Storage Capacity. Newsletter by Lev Borodovsky, China. Disponible en: https://on.wsj.com/35yJdeO

Cheng, Jonathan (2020), “China Records First Ever Contraction in Quarterly GDP on Coronavirus” Wall Street Journal, 17 de abril de 2020, Disponible en: https://on.wsj.com/2W5YZKX

Kelton, Stephanie and Edward Chancellor (2020), “Can governments afford the debts they are piling up to stabilise economies?” Financial Times, 3 de mayo de 2020, Disponible en https://on.ft.com/3c90oGq

Wolf, Martin (2020), “The world economy is now collapsing. A microbe has overthrown our arrogance and sent global output into a tailspin” Financial Times, 14 de abril de 2020, Disponible en: https://on.ft.com/2SBhbtS

Downloads

Published

2020-10-22

How to Cite

Girón, A. (2020). From the great crisis to the great depression of the 2020’s: China’ development, post-keynesian reflection and perspectives. Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies, 19(37), 22-43. https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1676-6288.prolam.2020.169823