Fight club: electoral competition in the dispute for Brazilian state governments (2006-2018)

Abstract

What is the effect of the revenue on challengers’ votes? Literature assumes that challengers are more efficient at transforming revenue into votes (Jacobson, 1978). Our goal is to empirically analyze this relationship by defending the hypothesis that challenging candidates are more efficient at turning revenue into votes. To test our hypothesis, we will analyze the data for governors of 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018. We use the Ordinary Least Squares Regression Model (OLS) to estimate the effect of revenue on voting. Our focus is directed to candidates for Brazilian state governments, whose results indicate that: 1) there was a significant drop in campaign spending after the law prohibiting private funding; 2) The average cost of voting in 2018 is R $ 8,84; and 3) challengers are more efficient at turning revenue into votes.