Determining factors of international tourist arrivals in Rio de Janeiro: evidence based on linear regression models

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1984-4867.v32i1p100-119

Keywords:

Tourism demand, Elasticity of tourism demand, Exchange rate, Macroeconomic influences on tourism, Statistics

Abstract

This paper aimed to analyze the main economic determinants of international tourist demand in the state of Rio de Janeiro. To that end, we used Multiple Linear Regression models in first differences using annual data from 2000 to 2017. The sensitivities of the tourist demand flows from seven of the ten main countries to the state of Rio de Janeiro were estimated considering income and real exchange rates. The only statistically significant effect was that of the exchange rate on tourist demand from Argentina. The results contradict well-established theoretical propositions and empirical evidence, which might be associated with the poor quality of tourism statistics in Brazil and/or to the simplified nature of the statistical model adopted. However, the insensitivity of international demand with respect to income and to exchange rate can also be partly explained by the marginal position of the state of Rio de Janeiro in the outbound tourism of the selected countries. Thus, the present paper establishes an innovative research hypothesis to be tested in future studies.

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Author Biographies

  • Isabela Lima Pinheiro da Camara, Universidade Federal Fluminense

    Master in tourism by the Program PPGTUR-UFF (Programa de Pós-Graduação Stricto Sensu em Turismo da Universidade Federal Fluminense) carried out with a CAPES scholarship (2019). Bachelor in Tourism from Universidade Federal Fluminense (2016). She was a volunteer and scholarship member of the Tutoring Program at the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality (2019), working with students entering the Bachelor of Tourism course in their 1st year of graduation.

  • João Evangelista Dias Monteiro, University Federal Fluminense

    PhD in Economics from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Professor at the Tourism and Hospitality Department at the Federal Fluminense University, where he teaches and researches in the field of Tourism Economics. Director of the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality at UFF. Coordinator of the Tourism Observatory at Universidade Federal Fluminense.

  • Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos, University of São Paulo

    Doctor in Tourism and Medio-Environmental Economics at the Universitat de les Illes Balears (Spain) and Doctor in Organizational Administration at the University of São Paulo (USP). Professor at the School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH) at USP, where he works on the Graduate Program in Tourism and the Undergraduate Course in Leisure and Tourism. Editor Jefe de la Revista Brasileira de Pesquisa em Turismo (RBTUR).

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Published

2021-04-04

Issue

Vol. 32 No. 1 (2021): January-April

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Copyright (c) 2021 Isabela Lima Pinheiro da Camara, João Evangelista Dias Monteiro, Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos

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How to Cite

CAMARA, Isabela Lima Pinheiro da; MONTEIRO, João Evangelista Dias; SANTOS, Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira. Determining factors of international tourist arrivals in Rio de Janeiro: evidence based on linear regression models. Revista Turismo em Análise, São Paulo, Brasil, v. 32, n. 1, p. 100–119, 2021. DOI: 10.11606/issn.1984-4867.v32i1p100-119. Disponível em: https://www.journals.usp.br/rta/article/view/174560.. Acesso em: 19 may. 2024.

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