Câmbio flutuante e balanço de pagamentos: uma análise preditiva

Abstract

The paper is divided into four parts. The first one investigates the empirical evidence for the balance of payments and the free floating exchange rate market. A historical analysis of the data on tourism according to the Brazilian balance of payments is followed by the analysis of the seasonal pattem of the data and by considerations on a free floating exchange rate for tourism. The second part investigates the correlation between the inflow of tourists and the receipts from international travel. The third part of the paper is an attempt to forecast the inflow of foreign tourists to Brazil; we discuss the estimates obtained. Finally the conclusions are pointed out and suggest that the next step is to forecast the balance of the tourism account in the balance of payments as a tool for policymakers to decide on the development of the tourism industry in Brazil.